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Issue Brief: The Future of Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
05/16/2007
So what does the future hold? Forecasting the demand for conventional hydrocarbon-based fuels requires estimating two things: market acceptance of new technologies such as hybrid vehicles, and the rate of technological advancement for efficiency technologies.
Market acceptance will be driven by a convergence of factors: the rising cost of oil, the need for reduced oil imports, the need to reduce smog-causing pollutants, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Automaker Toyota, for example, has plans to introduce a hybrid version of every single model in their product line within the next few years. According to one industry survey, hybrid vehicles will capture as much as 30 percent of the new car market by 2012.
At the same time, technological progress is already well under way. With their Prius hybrid model already at 56 mpg, Toyota will unveil a “plug-in” version of that vehicle by 2009, which will reportedly reach 100 mpg, four times the current average fuel efficiency of the U.S. auto fleet. Other fuel-saving technologies such as continuously variable transmissions and load-responsive cylinder activation are also being developed, and advancements in automobile materials will reduce vehicle weight and therefore fuel needs. Indeed, Volkswagen has already created an experimental fiber-composite hybrid vehicle that gets over 233 mpg.
Although one might assume the future of vehicle fuel efficiency will resemble past trends, the recent increase in fuel prices has spurred vehicle manufacturers to respond to consumer demands for radically improved fuel efficiency. Therefore, the nation must acknowledge this fact and take steps to address its impact on the motor fuels tax revenues so critically needed for surface transportation improvements.
Transportation stakeholders will need to understand the impact of motor fuel efficiency on current and future funding in order to protect and ensure the future of our transportation system and the economy that depends on it.
